Why Australia is being soaked when a record El Niño is forming

Australia is bracing for record rainfall this week due to the formation of an unprecedented El Niño event. This follows several years of heavy rain, and 2026 is on track to become the wettest El Niño year on record. While the country is likely to avoid prolonged drought, temperatures are expected to challenge all-time records this spring and summer.

The year began with widespread rain in February and March, but temperatures have followed the traditional El Niño pattern, with heat expected to reach all-time highs. Despite a rapid transition to El Niño and intensification throughout winter, frequent rainbands continue to traverse the nation. Year-to-date rainfall for an El Niño year is already at an all-time record, with the national average this year exceeding 400 millimeters.

August's rainfall is particularly impressive for an El Niño year, with the southern two-thirds of the country expected to experience one of the wettest Augusts on record. Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales will receive between 15mm and 50mm of rain before the end of the month, with some towns in northern South Australia already experiencing their wettest August on record.

The strengthening of El Niño is not solely responsible for the increased rainfall, as climate change is causing Australia's annual average precipitation to steadily climb. The Pacific Ocean's role is just one of multiple influences on Australia's climate variability, with warmer waters across the central Indian Ocean potentially providing favorable conditions for rainfall-producing weather systems.

The BOM's spring modelling predicts a wet spring for the western half of Australia, while the outlook for eastern states is mixed, with near-even odds of it being wetter or drier in parts of Queensland and NSW.