War nobody wants: Can Israel, Turkey avoid conflict?

Tensions between Israel and Turkey have escalated following Israel's recent airstrikes on a Syrian airbase. The immediate dispute centers around Turkey's potential establishment of a military presence at the airbase, but the larger issue is about who will shape Syria's military and political landscape post-Assad. Israel perceives a Turkish-backed Syrian military as a potential strategic threat, while Turkey views Israeli attacks as attempts to limit Turkey's influence in the region.

Neither side appears eager for war, yet the possibility of direct conflict has become more plausible as both could operate in the same theater. Turkey's escalating stance includes a request for Interpol to issue red notices for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged genocide charges, stemming from a past attack on activists aboard the Global Sumud Flotilla.

On August 18, Israel carried out airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria, targeting facilities including the runway and other infrastructure, though no casualties were reported. Israel claimed the strikes were to prevent Turkey from setting up a military base, citing a warning from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that such a move would threaten Israel's security.

The Israeli justification stands in stark contrast to Turkey's perspective. Turkish Defense Ministry officials claim no Turkish military delegation visited Abu al-Duhur before or during the Israeli attack, despite Turkey asserting its involvement in the country's military development and reconstruction efforts. This escalation highlights the growing divide between Israel and Turkey, with Israel now closely monitoring Turkey's military activities in Syria, a NATO member with one of the region's largest armed forces.