Ukraine’s biggest weakness against Russia isn’t interceptor shortage, analyst argues. It’s what happens before missiles even launch
Russia plans its terror campaigns years out, an analyst says.
Ukraine's inability to foresee and prepare for Russian threats surpasses the shortage of air defenses, argues Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance group. Russia has showcased its capacity for crafting and implementing medium-term terror operations that can take years to prepare, according to Obozrevatel. The Russian military continually adapts to new challenges and opportunities, intensifying their attacks.
Russia's recent usage of jet-powered Banderol drone missiles exemplifies this approach. Now, Russia employs a "tactical adaptive distribution" strategy, flexibly redirecting missiles and strike drones towards various regions and rear cities based on Ukraine's air-defense capabilities. The main difference is the increasing use of jet-powered drones, based on the Iranian Shahed-238 and Karrar, Russian-designated as Geran-3/4/5.
Russia introduced jet-powered kamikaze drones against Ukraine in January 2024 and has been continuously upgrading them over the past two years. While Ukraine failed to anticipate the threat, they now lack a practical, cost-effective method to intercept the Geran-3/4/5 drones, Kovalenko asserts. Russian forces deployed more than 1,400 jet-powered drones in the first half of 2026 alone, compared to just 180 throughout 2025.
Kovalenko claims that the Alabuga facility in Tatarstan may eventually be fully converted to produce jet-powered kamikaze drones, reflecting this strategy. The next step appears to be strikes on Kyiv, aimed at inflicting psychological pressure. A significant portion of Russia's new hard-to-intercept weapon variants seems to be amassed for such strikes.
Russian forces are capitalizing on Ukraine’s limited Patriot and SAMP/T interceptors to intensify their terror campaign. This tactic has been used before to pressure civilians and hinder economic activity in locations like Kharkiv and Odesa. The same strategy could potentially be directed at Kyiv, especially around Ukraine's Independence Day.
Written by urgent.news from Euromaidan Press's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
