Stormy autumn, cold winter - how might El Niño affect the UK weather?

A powerful El Niño weather pattern is currently developing in the Pacific Ocean, with potentially significant impacts on global weather, including the UK. While no two El Niños are alike, the Met Office predicts that this one may bring a wet and stormy autumn and early winter to the UK, with increased rainfall and storminess forecasted for November and December.

Although no link has been confirmed between El Niño and cold spells, the 2015-2016 El Niño winter brought some of the most extreme flooding on record in the UK. However, the current summer has been the hottest on record, and climate change makes increasingly intense rainfall more likely, so the wet autumn could also bring a heightened risk of flooding.

Strong winds could cause damage, transport disruption, and power cuts. While El Niño can sometimes precede cold winters in late winter, this link is not strong and past evidence is mixed. There is uncertainty about how the coming winter will be affected, but the Met Office notes the unprecedented scale of this El Niño, which may bring historically high temperatures by the end of 2026.

Despite its potential to raise global temperatures by 0.2C, El Niño's impact on the UK's weather is not straightforward, and long-term global warming remains the dominant driver of rising temperatures and heatwaves in the UK.