Statistics and federal policy on crime have changed, but the politics remain the same

OTTAWA - Despite new tough-on-crime laws being implemented and statistics showing falling crime rates, national polls suggest Canadians' feelings about crime and its use as a political wedge between parties remain unchanged, according to some pollsters. David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, stated that it would take time for the statistics and the new laws to resonate with Canadians as people need to feel safer before they believe the situation has improved.

He noted that recent stories of carjackings, home invasions, or the fatal shooting at a Toronto festival create a perception that crime is at an all-time high. According to Statistics Canada, crime severity index, which measures both the number of crimes and their severity, dropped by 5% in 2025, marking the second consecutive annual decline.

However, these numbers did not reflect the impact of the three sweeping crime bills passed by the federal Liberals last spring. Conservative Party's justice critic Arpan Khanna argued that violent crime is up 57% since 2015, shootings up by 100%, and extortion up by 300% under the Liberal government. He claimed that these laws are merely a Band-Aid solution and do not address the underlying crisis.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also used the StatCan data to claim that violent crime is up 57% since 2015. However, the StatCan numbers show a zero-percent increase in the violent crime rate from 2024 to 2025. Justice Minister Sean Fraser responded by pointing to decreases in the crime severity index and emphasized that working with law enforcement and provincial partners is more effective than trying to scare people for votes.

Pollsters suggest that people's perceptions of crime are based on their own experiences and what they see in their communities rather than the latest statistics.