Nifty holds 24,000 as crude, bond yields keep bulls in check

The Nifty 50 opened at 24,284.05 on Friday, slightly higher than its previous close of 24,231.85. The Sensex commenced trading at 77,701.07, following a Thursday close of 77,537.72. By 9:20 am, the Nifty had dipped to 24,230.65, falling 1.20 points, while the Sensex traded at 77,532.70, down 5.02 points or 0.01 percent. This cautious start followed Thursday's rebound, when the Nifty surged 154 points and the Sensex rose 628 points, ending a seven-session losing streak.

However, analysts warn that the recovery may prove fleeting, as rising crude prices and climbing US bond yields dampen the bulls' momentum, according to Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. Among Nifty 50 gainers early on, Eternal led with a 0.75 percent gain to ₹330.40, while NTPC and Shriram Finance added 0.53 and 0.52 percent, respectively.

On the losing side, TCS dropped 1 percent to ₹2,275.10, while Infosys and HDFC Life slipped by 0.80 and 0.61 percent. The IT sector's underperformance reflects the broader impact of rising US Treasury yields, with Wall Street falling sharply overnight as US Treasury yields rebounded after a brief intervention-driven dip. Crude oil prices reached one-month highs after President Trump threatened economic consequences for nations trading with Iran, pushing WTI into the $86–$87 per barrel range.

Energy stocks gained, yet the broader market remained cautious about inflation implications. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹583 crore on Thursday, whereas domestic institutional investors bought equities worth ₹3,537 crore, providing essential support. The Indian rupee strengthened to 95.7, breaking a three-day losing streak due to dollar weakness.

Technical analysis indicates that the 24,000–24,050 band serves as critical support, and sustained buying above 24,375 is crucial to break the current downtrend. Resistance lies between 24,300–24,500, with the 50-day SMA acting as support at 24,150. Geopolitical developments around Iran, crude oil prices, and US bond market movements are anticipated to be the dominant swing factors throughout the trading session.