[News analysis] Is Trump about to undo US policy on North Korea’s denuclearization?

US President Donald Trump expressed expectations of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un within the next year, stating that Pyongyang currently possesses 57 "very powerful" nuclear weapons. This acknowledgment of North Korea's nuclear arsenal has sparked speculation about whether the two leaders could meet for a summit on November 1st without denuclearization on the agenda.

When White House reporters inquired about the possibility of such a meeting, Trump affirmed that he would indeed visit Kim, though he declined to comment on whether denuclearization was his primary objective. Trump's recent shift in stance may be driven by his campaign strategy, with approval ratings hovering in the 30% range ahead of November's midterm elections.

By signaling openness to dialogue with North Korea, Trump could potentially prioritize disarmament and non-proliferation goals while acknowledging North Korea's nuclear status. This move could potentially set off a chain reaction of disarmament efforts in Northeast Asia. However, North Korea has thus far maintained its stance against denuclearization talks, with Kim Yo-jong, sister of Kim Jong-un, dismissing the US-South Korea joint military exercises and emphasizing that North Korea has "no interest" in the matter.

Despite this, North Korea's recent missile launch and Kim's assertion that the US is its "master" indicate a strategy to strengthen its bargaining position. As North Korea's strategic value has grown in relation to Russia and China, Trump's plans may be influenced by the need to secure concessions from Pyongyang in light of its enhanced bargaining power.