NESG projects external reserves to hit $53bn by year-end

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria's external reserves are expected to reach approximately $53 billion by the end of 2026. During a presentation at the Nigerian Industrialisation and Competitiveness Forum in Lagos, the Interim Director of Research and Development at NESG, Dr Joseph Ogebe, emphasized that the naira would remain broadly stable during the second half of 2026, with the external sector projected to remain resilient.

The increase in external reserves is attributed to factors such as higher crude oil production, favorable oil prices, stronger non-oil exports, and sustained current account surpluses.

Ogebe further highlighted that investor confidence, foreign portfolio inflows, diaspora remittances, and continued foreign exchange market reforms would strengthen foreign exchange liquidity. The NESG expects the headline inflation rate to stay elevated for the remainder of the year, averaging 15.5% in the second half and 4.2% for the full year 2026.

The projected GDP growth for the second half of 2026 is 4.5%, with a full-year growth of about 4.2%, driven by improved performance in the oil, manufacturing, agricultural, and services sectors.

Chairman of NESG, Olaniyi Yusuf, pointed out that persistent global supply chain disruptions highlight the need for Nigeria to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon revenues by strengthening its non-oil export base. He stressed that rapid industrialization is an economic imperative rather than a mere policy aspiration and emphasized that manufacturing accounts for about 10% of Nigeria's GDP and 1.4% of exports in the first quarter of 2026.

Yusuf encouraged the implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy 2025, which aims to build the productive capacity of Nigerian firms for economic transformation and inclusion.