N27.5tr Budget: Nigeria Tracks Spending, Not Results, Says Athena Centre
Michael Olugbode in Abuja The Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has warned that Nigeria’s public finance system has become increasingly effective at tracking government expenditure but remains poorly equipped to
The Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has cautioned Nigeria's public finance system for focusing heavily on tracking government expenditure rather than assessing the impact of the billions spent on citizens' lives. The warning is highlighted in the latest edition of the Athena Policy Pulse, titled 'Beyond Transparency: Building Results Accountability in Nigeria’s Public Finance System', authored by Izuchukwu Anyanwu and Chinaza Igwe.
The report argues that the primary challenge for Nigeria's public-finance system is no longer merely about how much is spent, but whether public expenditure generates measurable and enduring benefits for the people. The 2026 Federal Budget is projected at N27.5 trillion, with 41.6% of federally retained revenue being spent on debt servicing in 2025.
The 2024-2026 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework allocated over N5.9 trillion to health, N7.4 trillion to education, more than N10 trillion to infrastructure, and around N5.8 trillion to defence and security. However, the Centre contends that the surge in financial allocations has not directly resulted in notable enhancements in healthcare access, academic performance, transport efficiency, or security conditions.
The report identifies this as an institutional issue rather than a fiscal one, citing the persistent use of input-based budgeting, the lack of a link between previous performance and new appropriations, and incentives for ministries to demonstrate budget execution rather than measurable results. Furthermore, the Centre criticizes the disconnect between financial management systems and sectoral performance data, with auditing mostly centered on compliance rather than determining the value for money delivered by public resources.
To bridge the gap, the report suggests four major reforms: publishing a results annex alongside the annual Appropriation Bill, linking programme allocations to measurable outcomes; requiring ministries to submit performance briefs post-ex-post before approving capital projects within the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework cycle; expanding value-for-money audits to inform subsequent budget preparations; and upgrading the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System to interface with sectoral outcome systems, transitioning from a transaction-recording platform to a broader results-accountability mechanism.
The report views the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework as a pivotal opportunity for Nigeria to redefine how public expenditure is planned and evaluated. It suggests that integrating performance information into budgeting, appropriation, and auditing could determine whether Nigeria's public-finance system becomes a genuine tool for delivering public value or continues to focus primarily on expenditure management.
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