Lagos needs N6 trillion annually to fix housing crisis, GTI Capital Research shows

Lagos faces a staggering N6 trillion annual housing capital shortfall, according to GTI Capital Research. The housing deficit has surged to 3.4 million units, up from 2.95 million in 2016, representing a 15% increase over nine years, according to Prof. Timothy G. Nubi, Founding Director of the University of Lagos Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development.

At the "Beyond Rent: A Lagos Housing and Capital Forum," chaired by Engr. Abdulhafis Gbolahan Toriola, Permanent Secretary of Lagos State Ministry of Housing, speakers emphasized the need for private developers, mortgage finance, institutional investors, and capital-market funding to address Lagos' housing affordability challenges.

Nubi highlighted that Nigeria's pension funds, with assets of N30 trillion, are only allocating around 5% to real estate investment instruments, despite the potential for up to 30% allocation. The lack of capital is further compounded by the fact that Nigeria's real estate market, valued at $2.42 trillion in 2024, contributes only 0.5% to the country's GDP, compared to 18%-20% in the US and UK.

Ogunniyi, presenting "Beyond Rent: Mapping Lagos' Housing-Led Capital Expansion," framed the housing crisis as a capital allocation, affordability, and infrastructure-pricing issue, with rents in Lagos increasing by 80%-120% from 2024 to 2026 while wages grew by only 7%-9%. He estimated the annual housing capital gap to be N6 trillion, nearly three times Lagos State's entire capital budget, and pointed out the growing pressure on household incomes, with some residents spending between 60%-70% of their income on rent.

Experts called for greater use of capital-market instruments like REITs, bonds, asset-backed securities, crowdfunding, and mortgage innovations to finance housing development and expand supply.