La subida de 30.000 millones de Moderna da por hechos muchos éxitos en cáncer

Moderna has experienced a significant rise in its market value, with a 30 billion euro increase, following the announcement of a breakthrough in cancer prevention. The biotech company's personalized vaccine against cancer has been met with optimism that its success will extend beyond skin cancer. The clinical trial involving Moderna's therapy in combination with Keytruda, an immunotherapy from Merck used widely against various types of tumors, achieved its primary goal of prolonging the cancer-free survival of patients who had undergone tumor removal.

While the exact data has not been released, an intermediate analysis suggests excellent results are likely. This marks a turning point, as no vaccine or oncological treatment based on messenger RNA technology, the technology used to manufacture covid vaccines, had previously surpassed a phase III trial, the final stage before approval.

The previous phase II trial, presented in June at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) conference, showed a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death and a 59% reduction in metastasis among 157 patients. As a general rule in biotechnology, companies are valued around five times their revenues. Barclays estimated that sales of melanoma treatments could reach 2.6 billion euros by 2035, implying the drug would be worth approximately 12.9 billion.

However, Moderna must share profits with Merck according to their collaboration agreement. Additionally, it will be years before reaching this level of annual revenue with melanoma treatment. Excluding the value of time, the stock is currently undervalued. Moderna's stock has been volatile in the past, but it is clear that this is not a short-term position.

Merck also saw a 25.8 billion euro increase in its market value on Wednesday, and the pharmaceutical company is not a toy for speculators. The revaluation of Moderna implies 11.2 billion euros in annual sales, meaning 56 billion to be split between the two partners. In fact, both companies are testing the combination against non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and other varieties.

The combination may also prove effective in other varieties. Moderna announced in April that phase II trials in bladder and renal cells have completed patient recruitment, likely meaning news next year. The renal cancer treatment could also provide sufficient evidence of efficacy to request regulatory approval. The success of this venture is not guaranteed, as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s mandate has been hostile towards messenger RNA technology, despite recently approving the company's influenza vaccine.

It is unclear what margins personalized vaccines will have. These are questions for another day. For now, investors can dream of progress following another.