KwaZulu-Natal's manufacturing sector faces ongoing challenges in recovery

KwaZulu-Natal's manufacturing sector continues to struggle in its recovery efforts, with the challenges stemming from the COVID-19 lockdown, unrest in July 2021, and floods in 2022 still weighing heavily on businesses in the province. Additional hurdles include persistent issues with electricity, water, and logistics. Recent data from Spatial Econ, a senior economist at the organization, revealed that manufacturing confidence fell by 7% in a single quarter, although it was still 13.87% higher than a year ago.

The Durban Business Confidence Index, compiled by the University of KwaZulu-Natal, reflected this downward trend, with a score of 48.82 in the second quarter of 2026, indicating negative sentiment. The province exported goods worth R315.6 billion in 2025, with a trade surplus of R100.8 billion, but this was 18% lower than the peak reached in 2022.

Adjusted for inflation, exports were 18% higher than in 2019. However, real exports fell by an average of 5.6% annually between 2023 and 2025, while imports grew by 2.9%. Spatial Econ cautioned that the customs figures represented declared goods, not necessarily manufactured ones. The unemployment rate among manufacturers in eThekwini was down about 16% from 2019 to 2025, despite an increase in the number of businesses.

Spatial Econ noted that eThekwini had not regained its pre-COVID economic performance, with manufacturers employing fewer workers and showing limited productivity growth. The province's concentration in a few large export industries increased its vulnerability to international shocks, with precious metals, ores, vehicles, components, aluminium, and wood pulp generating 73% of the provincial export value in 2025. Diversifying exports beyond these dominant industries could help mitigate risks.