Kenya’s 2026 growth forecast falls to 4.13% as trade, real estate and tourism weaken – CBK
Kenya’s private sector has sharply lowered its expectations for economic growth in 2026, with trade, real estate and tourism recording the steepest declines in business confidence, according to the Central Bank of Kenya’s July 2026 Market Perceptions Survey. The survey shows non-bank private sector firms now expect the economy to grow by 4.13 per cent […]
Kenya's private sector has revised its growth expectations for 2026, citing weakening business confidence in key sectors. The Central Bank of Kenya's Market Perceptions Survey reveals that despite the economy still anticipated to grow modestly, non-bank private sector firms now foresee a modest 4.13% increase, down from the January projection of 5.04%.
Trade, real estate, and tourism sectors have experienced the most significant declines in confidence, with growth expectations plummeting from 5.29% to 3.74%, 5.00% to 3.93%, and 5.05% to 3.76% respectively. Agriculture and manufacturing also saw reduced expectations at 4.11% and 4.52% respectively. The survey identifies rising geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East and global energy price volatility, as major threats to Kenya's growth outlook.
Despite these concerns, businesses remain cautiously optimistic, expecting a moderate recovery in tourism and construction and lower borrowing costs. However, employment is expected to remain largely unchanged. Looking further ahead, the CBK projects steady but cautiously optimistic growth for Kenya's economy between 2027 and 2031, supported by various sectors and productivity gains.
Written by urgent.news from People Daily Kenya's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
