Is Pakistan’s Province Debate a Political Gimmick?

The issue of creating new provinces in Pakistan has resurfaced, sparking a political debate. Interior and Narcotics Control Minister Mohsin Naqvi's recent comments about the country's political system collapsing led to widespread discussion. His remarks suggested that the only solution is to involve the public in determining administrative units, such as provinces.

However, his own colleagues, including Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Prime Minister’s Advisor on Political and Public Affairs Rana Sanaullah, have not expressed support for the idea. Sanaullah emphasized that the government has no current plan for new provinces and questioned suggestions of 12, 20, or even 32 provinces without a concrete plan.

Legal hurdles and political challenges could impede the creation of new provinces. The government may attempt to bypass the requirement for provincial assembly consent by introducing constitutional amendments, which would need a two-thirds majority in parliament. A referendum on the creation of new provinces is also a possibility, but would still require parliamentary approval. The formation of a six-party coalition that secured the necessary two-thirds majority in parliament last summer may complicate matters.

The revived debate over new provinces appears to serve two purposes for Pakistan's establishment: diverting attention from unrest and potential constitutional changes. In Azad Jammu and Kashmir, protests over the reservation of seats in the region's legislature led to 89 deaths. Balochistan has also faced heightened tensions. The debate may be aimed at diverting public and media attention from these issues.

Moreover, the 18th amendment, which significantly enhanced provincial autonomy in 2010, could be at risk due to the proposed 28th amendment. This amendment seeks to centralize province creation, return devolved subjects to the federal government, and make NFC award shares flexible. The amendment has garnered both support and opposition, but the creation of new provinces would likely face strong opposition from the general population, particularly in provinces like Sindh, where the issue is more sensitive.