However you measure it, China’s job market is weak
Some workers are going back to the farm
China's job market appears weak, regardless of the metric used to measure it. In 2018, the country started publishing a monthly urban unemployment gauge based on surveys, but this figure has remained remarkably stable at 5.2% since July of the same year, surpassing 6% only 99 times in 115 months. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, when American unemployment soared into double digits, China's measure never exceeded 6.2%.
One reason for this stability could be that the survey only covers urban workers, who tend to migrate into cities during periods of strong job creation, diluting the unemployment rate. Another factor might be the annual target set by the government, usually around 5.5%, which incentivizes officials to keep the rate within a tight range.
This may make the unemployment figure less reliable as a measure of the true state of the job market. Despite its stability, the urban unemployment rate is a misleading indicator of China's vast and complex job market. Some economists suspect that China's export-driven growth is not translating into sufficient manufacturing employment, while others point to artificial intelligence potentially displacing entry-level white-collar jobs.
Additionally, wage growth remains sluggish, risking a return to deflation. To better understand this critical aspect of China's economy, analysts must rely on alternative proxies, such as the older gauge of registered unemployment, which has been collected since 1978. This measure, representing individuals who have officially registered as unemployed with local authorities, has remained relatively stable and was once a government target.
However, with the introduction of the surveyed unemployment rate, it fell out of favor and is now only released annually, albeit with a significant delay. Recently, this register of unemployed individuals surged by almost 16% to 12.7 million in late 2025, suggesting real stress in the labor market. If this increase is indeed a genuine indication of labor market difficulties, it could signal a fundamental shift in China's economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of re-evaluating the stability of unemployment figures when assessing the country's economy.
Written by urgent.news from Hindustan Times - World News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
