How will the Law and Justice split affect Polish politics?

The biggest-ever split within Poland’s main right-wing opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), is deemed a serious self-inflicted wound that signals a more fragmented conservative landscape and complicates the right’s path back to power. While the split provides a tactical boost for the Rzeczpospolita government led by Donald Tusk, there remains a chance for a conservative comeback if the right-wing parties cooperate effectively.

The split culminated in a bitter factional conflict over the party’s future direction, which has been ongoing for months. PiS has been the dominant force on the Polish right for the last two decades until it lost power following the October 2023 parliamentary election, paving the way for a coalition government led by Tusk. Since then, PiS has seen a decline in polling numbers to the party’s lowest support level in 15 years and has faced challenges from two radical right competitors: the free-market Confederation (Konfederacja) and the ultra-nationalist Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP).

The primary source of conflict within PiS was a dispute between party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who grew impatient with Kaczyński’s dominance. Two main factions emerged: a hardline traditionalist-conservative faction, often called the "butter-makers" (maślarze), advocating for a more radical right-wing agenda, and a modernizing-technocratic faction, often called the "scouts" (harcerze), that stressed economic competence and pragmatic governance.

The rift deepened when Morawiecki formed Development Plus, a think tank-like platform focused on economic development, which Kaczyński deemed a direct challenge to party unity and leadership authority. Although Kaczyński and Morawiecki reached a compromise at first, the tensions escalated in July when the PiS leadership banned members from participating in internal political factions, targeting Morawiecki’s faction.