Great Scott
Challenges Facing the Bond Trader in Chief
It’s Scott Bessent’s birthday today, and at the age of 64, he has been busy intervening in bond markets rather than tending to his garden. As the US Treasury Secretary, Bessent is seen as “the nation’s top bond salesman,” responsible for issuing $30.2 trillion in marketable securities in fiscal year 2025. However, his recent performance has been slipping, with rising yields in government securities auctions.
In August, a $42 billion 10-year Treasury note sale pushed yields to a high of 4.683% since 2007, and a $25 billion 30-year Treasury bond sale resulted in a yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001. Investors demanded higher returns, with bids worth nearly 2.5 times the debt on offer. With a national debt exceeding $40 trillion, interest costs now surpass defense spending, and annualized net interest on government debt hit 98.4% of government receipts in the 12 months to July, the highest since June 2020. Experts warn of potential crises, with many believing that higher rates are already causing damage.
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