ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2026

In July 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) published its Consumer Expectations Survey, revealing a moderate decline in inflation perceptions and expectations. The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous year fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in June, while the median expectations for inflation in the next 12 months decreased to 2.9% from 3.0%.

Similarly, expectations for inflation three and five years ahead also decreased to 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively. However, uncertainty about 12-month inflation expectations remained unchanged and was higher than pre-war levels. Lower-income households still reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than their higher-income counterparts.

Younger respondents (18-34 years old) continued to exhibit lower inflation perceptions and expectations compared to older age groups (35-54 and 55-70 years old). Nominal income growth expectations over the next year decreased to 1.0% from 1.1% in June, while perceived nominal spending growth over the prior year remained unchanged at 5.1%.

Expected nominal spending growth over the next year also remained stable at 3.6%. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months rose slightly to -1.2% from -1.4% in June. Unemployment rate expectations over the next year remained unchanged at 11.2%, with lower-income households anticipating a higher rate (13.5%) compared to higher-income households (9.4%).

The overall labor market outlook remained stable, as consumers expected the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the current rate of 10.6%. However, quarterly data suggested a weakening in labor market sentiment, with unemployed respondents expecting a lower probability of finding a job (30.8%) compared to employed respondents (9.8%).

Home price expectations remained unchanged at an annual increase of 3.4% over the next year, with lower-income households expecting higher growth (4.0%) than higher-income households (3.1%). Mortgage interest rate expectations declined to 4.9% from 5.0% in June, with lower-income households anticipating higher rates (5.7%) than higher-income households (4.4%).

The net percentage of households reporting credit access tightening increased compared to June, while the net percentage expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months decreased. The share of consumers applying for credit during the past three months increased to 14.3% in July from 13.4% in April. The Consumer Expectations Survey results for August 2026 are scheduled for release on September 18, 2026.

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