Climate change, capable ships could extend Churchill shipping season by months, studies show

Manitoba’s Premier says recent studies demonstrate the potential for year-round shipping from the Port of Churchill, supporting the case for expanding the Arctic deepsea port. Kinew stated that these studies eliminate the question of whether year-round shipping from Churchill is feasible. He emphasized that the studies address a key concern for shippers and will encourage investment.

Now, industry, investors, and governments in Canada and globally should consider investing in Churchill. The studies indicate that advances in marine technology and reduced sea ice due to climate change can expand shipping from the current four-month window. Icebreakers costing between $100 million and $410 million could navigate the waterways year-round, while properly designed bulk carriers costing between $60 and $70 million could operate for nine to 10 months annually under most conditions.

The shrinking amount of sea ice makes shipping with lighter-duty vessels more feasible. The window of ice-free water has increased by roughly a month since the 1980s, with every half-degree of warming adding about two weeks more, according to another study. These studies were conducted by the University of Manitoba, Fednav Ltd., and the Arctic Research Foundation, with funding from Manitoba, the federal government, and the Indigenous-owned Artic Gateway Group, which owns the port.

Kinew has advocated for port expansion, including potential fossil fuel exports, as a critical economic driver for the province. The port has had limited shipping activity in recent years but began shipping grain this year after a six-year break, along with modest amounts of zinc and potash. The port is among projects referred to the federal major projects office as a transformative strategy but was not part of the first round approved for expedited approval.