Canada’s Big Six banks head into Q3 2026 earnings on four-quarter beat streaks

Six of Canada's largest banks, known as the Big Six, will release their Q3 2026 earnings next week, all of them having achieved a streak of four consecutive earnings beats. Consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS) have been increased across the board over the past year, with CIBC leading the revisions at +12.1% and RBC at +9.8%.

However, after impressive year-to-date (YTD) gains of 19% to 34%, the group experienced a 5-7% pullback last week, setting the stage for a high-stakes earnings week with elevated expectations and little room for error.

All six banks are scheduled to report their earnings before the market opens on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), with Wednesday being the primary day for the reporting. RBC's Q3 estimate of C$18.07 billion in revenue is the largest print among the six. Each bank has already outperformed consensus estimates for four straight quarters, with RBC's streak particularly noteworthy, having beaten estimates by double digits in two of the last three quarters.

However, there is a slowing trend in surprise for BNS and RBC, as the gap between actual results and estimates is narrowing, indicating that expectations are increasingly aligning with actual performance.

Revisions to EPS estimates over the past 12 months demonstrate a growing confidence in the banks' performance, with positive revenue revisions as well. CIBC (+8.9%) and TD (+8.5%) lead the revisions, while BNS' revenue estimates have remained relatively stable (+1.3% over the past year), suggesting that analysts view its revenue growth as more predictable or less impressive.

The main outlier is BNS, with its revenue estimates only experiencing a minor increase of +1.3% over the past year, implying a perception of more predictable or less exciting growth compared to its peers. Currently, BMO is leading the YTD performance at +34.2%, while BNS trails behind at +18.9%. The uniform 5-7% pullback observed over the past week suggests profit-taking ahead of the earnings releases rather than any deteriorating fundamentals.

The setup for next week's earnings reporting is clear: six banks with a history of beating earnings estimates, rising EPS revisions, and strong stock performances. Historically, the banks have been able to deliver another earnings beat, but the recent decelerating surprise in the revisions and last week's synchronized pullback indicate that consistently high performances may be a thing of the past.

Investors will be looking for guidance as much as the actual results in this environment of geopolitical turmoil, where forward commentary may be just as important as backward-looking numbers.