Brent: Supply risks keep prices elevated – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and tight diesel inventories continue to support Brent. With prices near USD 94 and almost 20% above their early-August lows, Brent remains well below its April peak.
Barbara Lambrecht of Commerzbank emphasizes ongoing supply risks keeping Brent prices elevated. With prices approaching USD 94 and exceeding early-August lows by 20%, Brent is still far from April's peak. Global oil inventories have plummeted to multi-year lows, and Lambrecht cautions that further reductions could drive product prices upward.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a concern for energy markets, with no other major reports scheduled, attention may shift to inventory trends. Diesel inventories in particular are tight, and further drawdowns could push product prices higher. Even though Iranian oil exports are already constrained by the US naval blockade, market tightness may worsen.
As a result, the oil price increased marginally. Brent crude prices have risen approximately 20% over the past month. Global oil reserves fell below 7.9 billion barrels by the end of July, the lowest level since April 2025. Persisting declines in stocks ahead of the heating season, compounded by the Middle East's ongoing absence as a major exporter and stagnant refinery throughput in Russia, could further elevate product prices.
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