Börsen: Unruhe am Anleihemarkt - was droht Verbrauchern und Staat?

Turbulent times are gripping the bond markets, raising concerns for consumers and the state alike. The volatility is not just affecting the stock market, but also poses risks to governments - up to and including individual citizens. The current situation is driven by the fallout from the Iran war and a surge in debt among many advanced economies.

The blockade of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf has pushed oil prices higher, weakening the economy and fueling inflation. Rising inflation puts pressure on central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB), which may respond with interest rate hikes. Speculation on higher interest rates has driven up yields for government bonds.

Recent events have exacerbated the situation as investors lose hope of a return of normal Persian Gulf oil supplies. In a US Treasury bond auction with a 30-year maturity, yields exceeded five percent, the highest since before the 2008 global financial crisis, according to DWS, a daughter company of Deutsche Bank. Even Germany is not immune, with yields on ten-year government bonds rising to 3.25 percent, the highest level in 15 years.

Is a new debt crisis looming? "So far, rising bond yields are not a sign of an imminent debt crisis," says Eiko Sievert, who oversees ratings for the US and the EU at rating agency Scope. However, the signals reflect growing investor concerns about high budget deficits. In the US, things are particularly tense. US fiscal policy under Donald Trump is increasingly viewed as a risk on the stock market, though not yet a debt crisis.

The US national debt has skyrocketed to 40 trillion dollars - a 40 with twelve zeros. According to bank Metzler, the US Treasury must spend around 100 billion dollars per month just on interest payments - and the trend is upward. The US remains relatively resilient against a crisis compared to other countries, but a US debt crisis would have global financial market repercussions and would not spare Germany.

How is the US handling the situation? The government has attempted to push down yields on US government bonds to make servicing the debt more affordable. By announcing plans to buy more of its own bonds in the future, the US Treasury has only temporarily lowered yields. In Germany and Europe, the debt situation is less severe compared to the US, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 63.5 percent.

Germany, the Netherlands, and the Nordic countries are still considered relatively safe borrowers, according to Eiko Sievert of Scope. While countries like Italy with high debt levels and France with rising deficits and high debt-to-GDP ratios are being closely watched. However, Germany is not without its debt problems, with infrastructure and defense spending contributing to a growing debt mountain.

What are the implications for consumers? Turbulence on the bond market has put pressure on stock markets. The recent record-breaking run has been halted for now. Investors holding index funds, such as those invested in the MSCI World index, are feeling the impact in their portfolios. Conversely, gold investors benefit as investors seek safety and the precious metal recovers after sharp losses.

However, the effects are not limited to the stock market. With high bond yields, borrowing becomes more expensive, and the German government, led by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD, is already facing the need to cut costs. Cuts to social benefits like housing allowances and child benefits have already been announced. Sievert of Scope predicts that bond yields for Germany and other countries will remain relatively high in the long run.

This will increase the cost of borrowing for the federal government and leave fewer resources for other projects. "This will increase pressure to consolidate the federal finances and reduce deficits in the long term." Is Germany's top rating at risk? Concerns about Germany's mounting debt burden heighten the risk of a downgrade in its creditworthiness.

Currently, Germany holds the top credit rating of AAA (Triple A) from all three major rating agencies - S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. Despite this, analysts warn that Germany's debt mountain could eventually lead to a downgrade. Currently, all three US rating agencies maintain Germany's rating at Triple A, as does the European agency Scope.

Germany maintains significant fiscal buffers, says Sievert. Germany can still finance itself more favorably compared to most other countries.