BofA Names 5 European Semicap Stocks to Watch as China Import Data Shifts

BofA Global Research has identified five European semiconductor equipment makers that European investors may want to watch, based on semiconductor import data from China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Germany and the UK. The five companies are ASML, ASM International, Aixtron, Comet and VAT Group, all of which have received a "buy" rating from the broker. While some companies are showing strong import trends, others face a more cautious outlook.

ASML, the leading supplier of lithography tools, saw a 7% year-on-year increase in import value for these tools into China in July, though its year-to-date performance remains down 12%. Historical data shows a 95% correlation between import data and ASML's China equipment sales. China's revenue mix is expected to decline from 29% in 2025 to 20% in 2026E, according to the broker.

In contrast, Taiwan import data surged 79% year-on-year and 74% year-to-date in July. ASM International reported a positive trend in its CVD deposition import value from Singapore and South Korea, up 37% year-on-year and 77% month-on-month in July, which aligns with its Q3 consensus revenue growth of 38% YoY. The broker expects ASM to guide China sales higher in 2026, with a 94% correlation between import data and its Asia/global sales.

Aixtron also showed positive import data, with CVD deposition imports from Germany and the UK jumping 192% year-on-year in July, despite a 17% year-to-date decline. The broker acknowledges a potential positive Q3 read for Aixtron, despite its consensus 2H26 revenue growth forecast of 52% YoY. Comet, whose largest customer is Lam Research, saw etch imports into China fall 6% year-on-year and 17% year-to-date.

With its China revenue expected to grow by up to 45% YoY, this could be a negative indicator for the second half of the year, according to BofA.

VAT Group recorded a 65% year-on-year increase and 41% month-on-month rise in valve imports from Switzerland and Malaysia in July. However, YTD imports are down 1%. Given VAT Group's guidance of flat-to-single-digit China revenue growth in 2026E, BofA calls this a potentially mixed read for Q3, noting a 93% correlation with its quarterly implied China sales.