As Campaigns Begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s Re-election Bid Puts His Party on Trial

As campaigning for Nigeria’s January elections gets underway, President Bola Tinubu’s quest for re-election confronts a politically sensitive question – are Nigerians better off after nearly a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress (APC)? The outcome could decide the presidential contest, pitting Tinubu against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who have built their campaigns around widespread discontent over economic hardship and insecurity.

Critics argue that the APC’s near-decade in power has left Africa’s most populous nation poorer, more indebted, and no safer than when the party came to power in 2015 under President Muhammadu Buhari. Public opinion reflects this sentiment, with nearly 80% of Nigerians saying the country is heading in the wrong direction. Nearly 45% of respondents cite economic hardship and insecurity as their top concerns.

Tinubu’s economic reforms, including scrapping a decades-old fuel subsidy and devaluing the naira, have been touted as necessary measures to restore stability and attract investment. However, many Nigerians argue these changes have caused severe pain, fueling protests and what many describe as the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

While the government cites higher revenues and stronger investor interest as evidence of the reforms’ success, voters are more likely to judge the economy based on the affordability of basic necessities. In the bustling Garki market in Abuja, butcher Abdullahi Sani lamented the soaring costs that have crushed demand, saying he could no longer sell even one goat a day, down from six daily five years ago.

The disparity between macroeconomic improvements and household difficulties is likely to be a central theme in the campaign. Tinubu faces an additional challenge as voters weigh his record against that of his predecessor, Buhari. Buhari’s interventionist policies, which included import curbs, currency controls, border closures, and a costly fuel subsidy, contributed to a decade-long erosion of household prosperity.

The World Bank data shows that Nigeria's GDP per capita fell 53% to $1,224 in 2026 from $2,586 in 2015. The economic challenges are compounded by security concerns, with the government claiming military operations have reduced attacks and allowed farmers to return to their fields. Yet, Amnesty International reports at least 10,217 people have been killed by armed groups, and there were around 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren since Tinubu took office.

The opposition argues that after a decade in power, only tangible results matter. If Tinubu’s election bid is to succeed, voters will need to see tangible improvements in their lives, both economically and in terms of security. The outcome of these elections may hinge on whether life is safer and more affordable now than when the APC first promised change in 2015.