America’s Next Strategic Partner Is Hiding in Plain Sight
When Uzbekistan celebrates 35 years of independence on September 1st, Washington should do more than congratulate its people and government. It should recognize a strategic opportunity and make Uzbekistan the anchor of its policy in Central Asia. Uzbekistan is Central Asia's most populous country, strategically located between Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan, and the Caspian Sea. It is opening…
On September 1st, Uzbekistan will mark 35 years of independence. While the United States should offer congratulations, it should also see Uzbekistan as a strategic partner in Central Asia. Strategically located between Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan, and the Caspian Sea, Uzbekistan is opening its economy, improving relations with neighbors, and seeking global market integration.
Following independence in 1991, Uzbekistan inherited Soviet-era rigid institutions and remained isolated. However, under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's leadership since 2016, the country has made significant strides. Mirziyoyev liberalized the foreign-exchange regime, reduced trade barriers, encouraged foreign investment, and improved relations with Central Asian neighbors after quickly resolving longstanding border disputes.
Uzbekistan has committed to joining the World Trade Organization and has already taken steps toward accession. In January 2026, Uzbekistan joined President Trump's Board of Peace, and the two leaders have held regular and productive meetings. The economic results are impressive, with real GDP growth of 7.7% in 2025 and an expected 8.7% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Foreign direct investment surged to $43 billion in 2025, with Moody's upgrading Uzbekistan's credit rating to Ba2 due to a shrinking budget deficit.
The Tashkent International Investment Forum attracted 193 US firms, including industry leaders like Boeing and BlackRock. These firms, along with financial institutions like Franklin Templeton, are showing interest in Uzbekistan's economy. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank of the United States have also launched a joint platform to identify investment opportunities that align with both nations' interests.
Uzbekistan's geography gives it significant leverage. It borders all other Central Asian states and Afghanistan, with a population approaching 40 million, 52% of whom are under 30 years old. This young demographic presents a vast potential market and labor force. Strategically, Uzbekistan sits astride transport routes connecting China and Europe, the Caspian with Central Asia and, potentially, South Asian and Persian Gulf markets.
For the United States, Uzbekistan offers an opportunity to create resilient supply chains and reduce dependence on China and Russia. Rather than forcing Uzbekistan to choose between US and China, the US should offer attractive alternatives, including advanced technology, capital, management expertise, financial services, and experience in building competitive private markets. Uzbekistan's mineral resources, including gold, copper, and uranium, further strengthen the economic relationship.
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