Why Russia’s ballistic missiles are increasingly getting through Ukrainian defenses

When Russia launches a ballistic missile at Ukraine, air-defense systems have only minutes—sometimes seconds—to detect and intercept the deadly threat. The limited time leaves Kyiv and other cities increasingly vulnerable to devastating attacks by the fast-dive missiles. Ukraine struggles to protect itself due to a shortage of batteries and interceptors.

Unlike cruise missiles, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and dive steeply at several times the speed of sound, drastically reducing the time available to neutralize the warhead. Thomas Withington, an electronic warfare expert, likened the scenario to catching a rapidly thrown ball at high speed. Russia's primary ground-launched Iskander-M missile, as well as the air-launched Kinzhal and S-300/S-400 air-defense missiles, pose significant challenges.

The most capable Patriot system provided to Ukraine, designed for high-speed missile defense, requires tracking the missile, predicting its path, and launching within minutes, often leaving only seconds for the final engagement. Currently, Ukrainian air defenses are the only systems capable of intercepting Russian Iskander-M, S-400, and Zircon missiles, according to a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman.

While the U.S. and its allies operate other anti-ballistic systems like THAAD and Aegis, they have not been supplied to Ukraine. Even if Patriot batteries are present, they may not be sufficient if absent, out of position, or low on missiles. The shortage is further exacerbated by Russia's combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and decoys, forcing defenders to track multiple threats and ration scarce interceptors.

The shortage has worsened due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran consuming large numbers of Patriot and THAAD interceptors. The U.S. Patriot inventory has fallen by at least 65% from its prewar level, with annual production capacity expected to reach 2,000 by the end of 2030. Political signals from Washington have shifted, with President Trump initially providing a license for Ukraine to produce Patriots but later expressing uncertainty.

Ukraine aims to destroy Russian missile launchers and infrastructure before any missiles are launched, hoping that access to Starlink communications for targeting inside Russia could help Ukrainian drones hunt launchers and related infrastructure, reducing the number of missiles Patriot batteries must engage.