USA: Trump versprach sinkende Preise: Was die Bilanzen der US-Einzelhändler über die tatsächliche Lage verraten

President Donald Trump maintains that food and living costs are on the decline, stating that prices are falling rapidly. He dismisses concerns from his political opponents and labels the "affordability" issue as a "Democrat's trick." The question of whether Trump is correct or if the Democrats are right can be answered by examining the retail chains' recent quarterly results.

In this week's report, major U.S. retailers revealed their latest quarterly earnings, telling a different story from Trump's claims. Retail sales dropped by 0.6% in July compared to the previous month, the steepest decline since May 2025. At the same time, discounters like Walmart report an influx of customers and avoid more expensive providers due to high prices.

The main culprit appears to be the high prices: Inflation stood at 3.4% in July, surpassing wage growth once again, putting increasing pressure on consumers and also putting Trump in a difficult spot before the important congressional elections in November. Walmart, in particular, is seen as the main beneficiary of frugality: The largest retailer in the country often gains market share when consumers switch from more expensive stores to its outlets.

Walmart can often offer more favorable prices due to its sheer size and market power. Retail sales at Walmart rose by 3.5% in the previous quarter to $125.2 billion, also driven by increased customer traffic (up 1.5%). The adjusted earnings per share exceeded Wall Street's previous expectations at $0.81, and the company raised its annual forecast.

Walmart continues to note that consumers are financially under pressure, CEO John David Rainey told CNBC. The company is cutting prices across all product categories, including beef, he added. "We would like to cut prices even further to reduce the pressure on their wallets," he further explained. Walmart plans to finance this with government import duty refunds.

Rainey stated that the company is entitled to reimbursements of about $2.9 billion, of which less than $100 million had been paid out so far. The impact would become visible in the third quarter's balance sheet. Price restraint also applies to the home improvement store Lowe's, which reported a slight slowdown in its clothing discounters TJ Maxx and Marshalls in the second quarter.

The business segment recorded a comparable sales growth of only one percent, a slowdown compared to the 6% of the previous quarter. "We fear this may be linked to lower average sales due to growing signs of consumer weakness and price increases for some time now," said Dylan Carden, an analyst at William Blair, to the Reuters news agency.

The company's CEO, Ernie Herrman, admitted to mistakes and admitted that his company could have better structured the product mix at TJ Maxx and Marshalls. Not only clothing, but also home improvement is seeing a reluctance from Americans. At Lowe's, the second largest home improvement chain in the country, comparable sales increased by only 0.2%, driven by home improvement contractors, online shopping, and services.

Home improvement spending weakened. The difficult housing market is also putting pressure on the company. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is around 6.7%, up from around 6% before the Iran war ended in February. The war drives up inflation through energy prices and through bond yields. The result: Sales of existing homes fell by 1.7% in July.

Major renovations are unlikely to happen. Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison said he assumes that homeowners will be frugal with their money for the rest of the year. "The good news is that we are not seeing these customers switch to cheaper products," he said. Instead, they would wait. But it is clear that not all consumers are feeling the high prices equally strongly.

Unemployment is historically low at 4.1%, and stock markets have climbed to a record high 25 times in 2026. Those with investments in stocks or a house see their wealth grow. Economists speak of a K-shaped development: one side of the letter points upwards, the other downwards. Estimates by Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi show that nearly 60% of all expenditures now fall on the 20% of Americans with the highest incomes.

The spending of the lower 80% of the population has already outpaced inflation, while the bottom part already experiences the consequences of rising prices in their monthly credit card statements. In the second quarter of this year, credit card debt reached a total of $1.26 trillion, reaching almost the all-time high from the fourth quarter of the previous year.

"There really are many people who can manage and spend money because they feel good and are confident in their jobs," said Matt Schulz, a consumer finance analyst at credit broker Lendingtree, quoted by CNN. "But there's a lot of people who are really struggling because of the high prices and the difficult job market." Record credit card debt for car loans reached $1.7 trillion in the second quarter, a record. "People generally only stop paying their auto loan when they are truly in trouble," he explained.