United States: Slow growth but data understate jobs – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner has examined recent U.S. employment trends and concluded that the pace of growth is currently slow. In the past year, average monthly job gains have amounted to just 32,000. While the official data may be understating job creation, Weidensteiner anticipates a positive benchmark revision of approximately 250,000 jobs for March 2026.

However, this revision will not significantly impact the current softening labor market. U.S. employment has only grown modestly in recent quarters, with employment rising by only 0.24% in July compared to the previous year. In December 2025, QCEW figures indicated job growth of 299,000 compared to December 2024's increase of 0.2%, whereas nonfarm payrolls only showed a marginal increase of 69,000 jobs.

This discrepancy suggests potential underreporting of actual employment by 230,000 jobs. A similar disparity is likely to occur in March, resulting in an upward revision of payrolls for the first time in four years, estimated at about +250,000 jobs, or roughly 0.16%. While this revision alters the baseline, it is unlikely to prompt a reassessment of labor market developments since March, as it also implies that statisticians have enhanced their models, benefiting the quality of current labor market data.