UK lacks defences and leadership to see off a war, former minister warns

A former UK defence minister has cautioned that the country lacks the necessary leaders and defences to confront the threat of war. Tobias Ellwood, who previously held positions in both the defence and foreign offices, raised concerns about the UK's current state of preparedness. During a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, Ellwood questioned the nation's readiness to handle a potential crisis that could escalate into war.

Ellwood highlighted the lack of leadership in Britain capable of dealing with such a situation, emphasizing that the UK has been enjoying relative peace for the past three decades since the end of the Cold War. He pointed out that this assumption of conflict happening elsewhere is becoming increasingly unrealistic, as evidenced by Russian naval activity in the Channel, threats to undersea cables, and weaknesses in Britain's air defences.

The former MP, who holds a private pilot's licence, shared a personal experience of flying directly over the Royal Navy's two large aircraft carriers docked in Portsmouth without being challenged. He expressed surprise at the lack of air defence protecting Portsmouth, stating that Britain is in a precarious position, assuming war is not imminent.

Ellwood's concerns come amid growing military pressure from Russia and Iran, with the latter conducting hostile operations against people on British soil. He also mentioned increased pressure from the United States for the UK to spend more on defence. While the Labour government has committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2027, Ellwood believes that such long-term commitments are insufficient.

Ellwood argued that the shortage of strategic thinking, rather than depleted armed forces, is a significant concern. He emphasized the need for bold leadership and statecraft, warning that Britain is failing to produce politicians of sufficient stature to navigate the increasingly dangerous international environment. He criticized populist politics and the approach of US President Donald Trump, who has written off any prospect of repairing the global order.

Ellwood warned that the West may only respond after a major crisis, and therefore, bold action is required to shape the future order. He called for rebuilding alliances, considering national service, and preparing for how wars will be fought in the future. The choice, according to Ellwood, is not merely between peace and conflict but between shaping the next order or inheriting one imposed by adversaries.