Turtlemint shares jump over 5% as Jefferies initiates buy call, sets ₹190 target

Turtlemint shares surged more than 4% on Thursday following Jefferies Global Research's initiation of a buy rating with a target price of ₹190. This represents a significant 37% increase from Turtlemint's previous closing level. The brokerage highlighted the growth opportunities in India's insurance sector as a key reason for the positive outlook.

Jefferies pointed out that the Point-of-Sales-Person (POSP) channel is one of the fastest-growing insurance sales channels in India, accounting for 6% of premiums. The brokerage highlighted Turtlemint's 20% market share in this segment, attributing their success to the company's robust POSP network and technology stack, which drive superior profitability at a smaller scale.

Jefferies expects Turtlemint's revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 38% over the next three years, driven by a 31% premium growth rate and higher take-rates. The brokerage expects Turtlemint's FY29 adjusted EBITDA margin to reach 10%, up from a loss in FY26. Jefferies' valuation of Turtlemint at 23x its FY28 estimated adjusted EBITDA is notably lower than its peers in the fintech space, with PB Fintech trading at 39x and Prudent at 29x.

The brokerage sees Turtlemint's strong relationships with agents, insurers' increasing reliance on POSP networks, and operating leverage as key value drivers. However, Jefferies cautioned that potential risks include commission cuts or caps and aggressive market leadership. A 1% reduction in commission rates could lead to a decline of 50-60 basis points in adjusted EBITDA margin.