Sveriges sentralbank holder renten i ro

Sveriges centralbank, the Riksbank, has maintained its key interest rate at 1.75 percent. It was widely anticipated that the rate would remain unchanged this time as well. The last adjustment was a cut in September 2025, when Sweden's interest rate had been lowered from a peak of 4 percent in May 2024. Despite the current stability, the Riksbank states that there is "a probable chance of a rate hike in the future."

During the last monetary policy meeting in June, the central bank mentioned an increased likelihood of a rate hike later in the year compared to their assessment in March.

The Riksbank now highlights that both inflation and economic growth have been higher than initially estimated in the summer, and there remains a risk that underlying inflation could become too high due to supply shocks in the Middle East. The conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil and gas prices significantly, largely due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This contributes to the higher pressure on price increases. However, the picture is not entirely clear, according to the Riksbank. For instance, corporate profit forecasts have softened, supply disruptions in global supply chains have eased, and the labor market has been somewhat weaker than anticipated.

If an unexpected surge in prices this summer had sparked a larger and more persistent inflationary trend, the Riksbank would adjust monetary policy in a tighter direction. The inflation figure (KPI) was 0.2 percent and inflation excluding interest rate changes (KPIF) was 0.7 percent on an annual basis in July. The central bank also notes in the interest rate decision that "the underlying inflation that wipes out energy prices and direct effects of temporary fiscal measures" is relatively close to the target of 2 percent.