Southeast Asia haze risk rises as Indonesia’s fire hotspots jump

Southeast Asia faces an escalating haze risk as Indonesia's fire hotspots have surged to their highest level in over a decade, according to the forestry ministry's fire-monitoring platform SiPongi. Over 3,500 hotspots have been detected this month alone, more than quadrupling the July total and marking the highest August count since 2015.

Wildfires and resulting haze are a recurring issue in the region, costing local economies billions of dollars annually. The situation is exacerbated by an intense El Niño climate pattern, which brings hotter and drier conditions to the area. Indonesia is experiencing unusually dry weather, with rainfall significantly below average since July and temperatures around 1.2C above normal.

Climate models predict continued arid conditions through October, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall. Fire weather conditions are particularly severe in parts of Kalimantan, Sumatra, and Java, with a high fire weather index indicating that any fires that ignite will be challenging to control. The Indonesian meteorological agency attributes the heightened fire risk to a very strong El Niño and a positive phase of another climate pattern in the Indian Ocean.

In 2015, widespread fires across Southeast Asia resulted in a regional haze emergency, costing Indonesia US$16 billion, and strained diplomatic relations between neighboring countries. Globally, heatwaves and the strengthening El Niño have already caused major fires in North America and Europe. Australia is expected to face an even more dangerous wildfire season from September to November, driven by dry fuel loads, low soil moisture, and scant rainfall.