September fuel price: Steep increases forecast for petrol and diesel

South African drivers are set to face significant fuel price hikes in September as global oil costs remain high due to the Middle East conflict. The Central Energy Fund predicts petrol prices will rise by approximately 80 cents for 93 Unleaded and 90 cents for 95 Unleaded. However, if recent surges continue, increases could reach R1.00 to R1.10 per litre.

Diesel prices are expected to soar even more, with potential hikes of R2.85 for 500ppm and R3.05 for 50ppm, potentially escalating further if trends persist. Paraffin is also anticipated to see an increase of around R2.23. Motorists have endured volatile and taxing fuel prices this year, with 95 Unleaded climbing from R19.47 to R24.71 between March and August, peaking at R27.19 in June, while diesel rose from R17.70 to R25.30, peaking at R30.30 in May.

Following the start of hostilities between the US and Iran in late February, international oil markets have been extremely volatile, with Brent crude oil trading near $90 per barrel in August, down from $126 earlier this year, still considerably higher than pre-war levels of around $70. Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB, stated that "A return to normal flows out of the Strait of Hormuz is now suddenly without any near-term hopes."

Nevertheless, analysts anticipate a gradual decline in international oil prices, with JP Morgan forecasting Brent to average around $86 in the third quarter, falling to $80 in the fourth quarter and $78 in 2027.