Retail Inflation May Cross 6% In October-November Before Easing In Q4 FY27, Report Says
New Delhi: India's retail inflation could briefly cross 6 per cent in October-November before easing to around 5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY27, according to an SBI Research report. The report expects retail inflation to rise to 4.7 per cent in August from 4.45 per cent in July. "We expect August inflation print at 4.7%, with inflation possibly just breaching the 6% in October and…
India's retail inflation could briefly exceed 6% in October and November before dropping to around 5% in the fourth quarter of FY27, according to an SBI Research report. Expectations are for inflation to increase to 4.7% in August from 4.45% in July. The report predicts August inflation will be at 4.7%, with a possible breach of the 6% threshold in October and November, followed by a decline to approximately 5% in Q4.
Improving food supply conditions and normal monsoon rainfall are anticipated to help keep inflation in check. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a decline in global yields could also help moderate inflationary pressures. However, the RBI Governor, Sanjay Malhotra, has stated that the central bank will require further clarity on the inflation trajectory before making any adjustments to the policy rate.
The SBI report also raised concerns about the potential impact of recent policy actions on market expectations, emphasizing that markets should focus on action rather than communication.
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