Oil market starts pricing in a prolonged Hormuz crisis
The oil market is increasingly behaving as though disruptions to Middle East energy supplies are not a temporary shock but a new reality.
The oil market is increasingly pricing in the prospect of a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, following the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. While hopes for a diplomatic resolution have waned, traders are now grappling with the possibility of persistent restrictions on shipping through the vital oil chokepoint.
This shift in expectations has helped stabilize crude oil prices around US$90 a barrel, despite the crude remaining roughly 50 percent higher than the start of the year. The economic fallout is mounting for both sides, with Iran experiencing high inflation and reduced crude exports, while the United States faces rising fuel costs.
The biggest uncertainty lies in the scale of supply disruptions, which have already led to a dramatic drop in Middle East exports, with Gulf producers relying more on vessels that evade tracking systems. The situation remains highly uncertain, with global refined fuel markets being exceptionally tight and global oil stocks at their lowest level in a decade.
The prolonged Hormuz impasse is reshaping the global oil trade, with markets struggling to cope with opaque supply flows, shrinking fuel inventories, strained refining capacity, and no clear diplomatic path to restoring Gulf trade.
Written by urgent.news from The Jakarta Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
