Nigeria’s oil output could top 1.7mbpd, NESG sees fiscal relief from higher prices

Nigeria's crude oil production is projected to surpass 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the second half of 2026, according to the Nigeria Economic Summit Group's (NESG) 2026 Half-Year Outlook Report. This growth is attributed to enhanced oil sector fundamentals, including reduced crude theft, improved pipeline security, and increased upstream investment following the resumption of oil block licensing.

NESG anticipates global factors, particularly geopolitical tensions and their impact on energy markets, to be significant determinants of Nigeria's economic performance in the latter half of 2026.

As a net oil exporter, Nigeria could potentially benefit from higher crude oil prices if supply disruptions continue or Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions intensify. The projected increase would signify further progress in restoring Nigeria's oil production capacity, although output would still fall short of the 2026 budget assumption of 1.84 million bpd.

In July 2026, Nigeria's crude oil production surpassed 1.5 million barrels per day for the third consecutive month, despite a slight decline from the preceding month. Despite this, Nigeria's oil production continues to be below the levels required to fully meet the government's budget assumptions, with challenges such as crude theft, pipeline security issues, and underinvestment affecting output.

Nigeria's total petroleum reserves, as declared by the National Oil Resources Regulatory Authority (NUPRC) as of January 1, 2026, amount to 37.01 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate, along with 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited aims to expand Nigeria's gas reserves from the current 210 trillion cubic feet to approximately 600 trillion cubic feet.

The agency has stated that Nigeria remains on track to achieve its goal of producing 3 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2030.