Mecca pact does not give Pakistan a blank cheque

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7 by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, has drawn India's attention. New Delhi is assessing its impact on regional security and bilateral ties with the signatories. The agreement's main provision - an armed attack on one party being considered an attack on all - has been seen by some as potentially giving Pakistan broader security coverage.

However, this interpretation is not complete. The deal is primarily defensive, focusing on collective deterrence against external aggression. Both Riyadh and Ankara have stressed it's not against any specific country, is open to more members, and doesn't replace prior bilateral agreements. Under international law, the clause, based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, allows for self-defence in the face of an armed attack, but doesn't expand individual or collective right to self-defence or change the legal threshold for what constitutes an "armed attack."

The agreement doesn't cover state-sponsored terrorism or support for non-state actors. The real-world impact of the agreement depends more on the interests of the main parties than its legal language. Saudi Arabia prioritizes regime stability, economic transformation, energy market issues, and managing Iranian influence, while Türkiye's priorities are more complicated, balancing support for Pakistan on Kashmir and maintaining trade and investment ties with India.

Pakistan, with its economic vulnerabilities, has the least flexibility. The deal reshapes regional diplomacy but doesn't change the basic incentive structure. Those who have invested heavily in ties with India are unlikely to let those ties be dictated by Pakistan's desire for managed instability. India's strategy should involve ongoing, careful engagement with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, maintaining clear boundaries on terrorism, and bolstering relationships that give these countries reasons to keep the peace.