Israel’s Syria strategy risks turning Turkey into new Iran - opinion
Israeli security doctrine measures threats by their effect on freedom of aerial movement rather than by their political or legal character.
The crux of Israel's approach to Syria's Syria strategy is its response to Turkey's presence, which Israel treats as equivalent to Iran's in terms of its impact on Israeli airspace. This response is based on Israeli security doctrine, which classifies threats not by their legitimacy but by their effect on freedom of aerial movement.
Consequently, even a Turkish military delegation inspecting a runway being repaired is deemed worthy of attack. This approach, however, overlooks Turkey's strategic project aimed at gaining strategic depth, settling the Kurdish question, and securing a market for its defense industry. Turkey's goals differ significantly from Iran's infiltration and redrawing of the demographic map, which ultimately superseded the Syrian state.
The paradox lies in Syria, whose airfields are being bombed not as a hostile entity but under a negotiating track for a security agreement or return to the 1974 disengagement arrangements. This contradiction underscores the gap between sovereignty as rhetoric and sovereignty as capacity. While direct Turkish-Israeli confrontation is unlikely, a war of attrition through messages seems more probable.
Three possible trajectories are worth watching: a prolonged negative equilibrium, a conditional opening leading to an end of the strikes and Israeli withdrawal, or a slide towards confrontation if Turkey suffers casualties. Key indicators include the resumption of rehabilitation work, the establishment of an operational air-defense system by Turkey, and the survival of the negotiating track despite the ongoing strikes.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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