Iran signals tougher military strategy as US standoff deepens

Since the US and Iran clashed on February 28, Iran's military strategy appears to be evolving from retaliation to offense, analysts say. Tehran has been portraying its strikes against the US, Israel and Gulf countries as retaliation for attacks on Iran. However, Iranian officials are now openly discussing giving offensive operations a higher priority while maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint that has disrupted global energy flows and raised prices.

Iranian supreme leader Khamenei recently called for strengthening military deterrence and preparing for large-scale offensive operations against the enemy. A deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards recently hinted that Tehran is revising its military doctrine to prioritize offensive operations. Analyst Sina Toossi believes this shift does not indicate Tehran is pursuing a doctrine of preventive war, but rather that Tehran believes it holds leverage to advance its demands and break the stalemate by escalating earlier and more forcefully if confrontation becomes unavoidable.

Iran's strategy comes with risks, however. Iranian attacks, such as one on a US air base in Jordan, have been seen as examples of this new, offensive approach. While Iran believes American military superiority does not give Washington the ability to dictate terms, the strategy could lead to a faster escalation of future crises and a more unstable strategic environment.