Growth and revenue targets of 2026 Mid-year budget unrealistic – IFS

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has stated that the government's 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review and Economic Policy projections are not realistic and need to be reviewed. The IFS argues that the projections do not fully reflect Ghana's stronger-than-anticipated economic growth, particularly the 5% real GDP growth in 2025. Dr Said Boakye, Executive Director of the IFS, emphasized that the government must base its macroeconomic assumptions on solid economic evidence to enhance budget credibility.

Some of the government's projections for GDP growth and revenue generation do not align with current economic realities. Dr Boakye believes that stronger economic performance should have led to more realistic fiscal targets, rather than conservative assumptions that could hamper budget planning. The IFS recommends independent review of government forecasts before they are included in budget statements to improve reliability and transparency.

While acknowledging the economy's recovery signs, the IFS highlights ongoing challenges in revenue mobilization, especially from the rapidly expanding small-scale gold mining sector. In 2025, Ghana's gold exports more than doubled, increasing by 103.3% from $10.31 billion to $20.98 billion, with small-scale miners contributing $10.8 billion, or 51.5% of total exports.

However, the Institute noted that this growth in exports did not lead to corresponding fiscal benefits for the state, with mineral royalties increasing by only 21% from $364 million in 2024 to $441 million in 2025. The IFS urges the government to create a strategy to capture revenue from small-scale mining, including strengthening monitoring systems and improving compliance.