Even if U.S. alcohol returns to provincial shelves, will Canadians buy it?

Even if U.S. alcohol returns to provincial stores in Canada, it remains uncertain whether Canadians will purchase it, according to provincial officials and retail experts. The possibility of U.S. alcohol resurfacing on Canadian shelves hinges on a trade deal between the United States and Canada, but even if reached, consumer behavior may not immediately change.

Provincial boycotts of American alcohol served as a major trade irritant for President Donald Trump, who accused Canada of discriminatory measures that led to the imposition of tariffs in 2024. In reaction to these tariffs, several Canadian provinces removed U.S. alcohol from their shelves, with Nova Scotia being one of them. Prime Minister Mark Carney has urged provinces to reintroduce U.S. alcohol, but even this request does not necessarily guarantee Canadians will rush to buy it upon its return.

A new survey from Abacus Data shows that only 19 percent of Canadians surveyed support returning American products to store shelves, while 69 percent believe their provincial governments should keep the restrictions in place. Canadian attitudes towards U.S. alcohol are largely tied to their dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's tariffs and the subsequent boycotts.

Retail analysts suggest that even in provinces where U.S. alcohol is still on shelves, sales have been declining, indicating that consumer preferences may not be fully shifting back to American liquor. Canadian alcohol producers and retailers hope that a continued "Buy Canadian" mentality will sustain the growth of local alcohol industries, but they are cautious about depending on a potential uptick in U.S. alcohol sales to drive this growth.

The economic impact of the U.S. alcohol boycott on the American industry has been significant, with a 78 percent drop in wine exports from 2024 to 2026, amounting to a loss of US$357 million for the American wine industry.