Ethiopia, Uganda lead Kenya’s informal export markets, KNBS survey shows

Ethiopia and Uganda together accounted for over 80% of Kenya's unrecorded exports in recent surveys, according to a new Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) report. Ethiopia emerged as the primary destination, receiving nearly half of Kenya's informal exports in December 2024, valued at Ksh74.5 million. Uganda followed as the second-largest recipient, receiving Ksh37.1 million in the same period.

The trend persisted in June 2025, with Kenya's informal exports to Ethiopia reaching Ksh67 million, constituting 54% of the total. Uganda received Ksh36.2 million, or 29%. Together, Ethiopia and Uganda contributed approximately 83% of Kenya's informal exports during June 2025. Border stations like Moyale and Suam played crucial roles in facilitating these cross-border trade flows.

The survey, conducted over two 14-day periods in December 2024 and June 2025, revealed that informal exports were primarily driven by food items and raw materials. In December 2024, crude materials, excluding fuels, made up 42.1% of Kenya's informal exports, while food and live animals dominated in June 2025, accounting for 37.9%.

Other goods included miscellaneous manufactured articles, chemicals, and oils. Despite Ethiopia and Uganda's prominent role, Kenya's overall informal trade declined by 22.3% from December 2024 to June 2025, shifting from a surplus to a deficit. This decline was attributed to seasonal fluctuations and reduced market activity. Kenya and its neighbors are working towards simplifying cross-border trade through formal channels, aiming to reduce paperwork and barriers.

The COMESA Simplified Trade Regime (STR) and a bilateral agreement between Kenya and Ethiopia to establish a similar regime at Moyale are steps being taken to ease the process for small-scale traders.