Energiesicherheit: Wirtschaftsministerium sieht noch keine Gas-Versorgungskrise

The German Federal Ministry of Economics is attempting to dispel concerns about potential gas supply bottlenecks during the colder months. According to an internal paper, there is no expectation of a gas shortage in the upcoming winter. However, the government has not ruled out future intervention. The ministry notes that German gas storage levels are significantly lower than in previous years.

While gas supply security cannot be determined solely by storage levels, low reserves could reduce the buffer for extraordinary situations, such as prolonged cold spells, loss of key import infrastructure, or additional disruptions in the international LNG market. Gas is primarily supplied through pipelines from Norway, import terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG), and neighboring European countries.

The ministry estimates that storage levels of 60 to 70 percent at the start of winter, combined with import options, would be sufficient to cover average winter demand. Currently, German gas storage levels are at around 50 percent. Gas prices have been unusually high this summer due to the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, leading traders to purchase less gas for winter sales.

The ministry stresses that a tense market situation with high prices is not yet a supply crisis, but private industry is primarily responsible for winter preparation. In particular, gas companies and traders should take the lead. The government's intervention would carry risks, as state purchases could create additional demand, raise prices, and displace private storage.

Furthermore, there is the risk that market participants might come to rely on state intervention when storage levels are low. Nonetheless, the federal government is preparing "the necessary courses of action so that they can be quickly and targetedly used in case of a deterioration of the situation," the ministry states. It will monitor developments in storage levels, imports, LNG availability, infrastructure, demand, and the situation in neighboring European countries.

The German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) says the gas supply will be secured despite the low storage levels. Gas traders and suppliers are meeting their contractual delivery obligations, and consumers can rely on them, BDEW President Kerstin Andreae says. The association points out that gas companies have secured their delivery commitments through individual procurement portfolios, which include storage volumes.

However, there is no obligation to ensure supply through gas storage. The rise of LNG terminals constitutes another pillar of supply. BDEW criticizes state-prescribed storage levels, calling them mere benchmarks that do not automatically trigger government action. These benchmarks could create incentives for market participants to expect state intervention and therefore store less gas.

The national gas reserve, conceived by the federal government, is welcomed by Andreae. It should be used in predefined crisis situations to provide better protection for Germany. Consumer advocate Ramona Pop warns of rising gas prices for consumers. Low gas storage levels could exacerbate the already tense energy markets in the upcoming heating season and lead to higher energy prices for households.

She advises consumers to check whether their contract includes price protection for the winter and to compare prices, potentially switching to a more favorable provider.