Driver shortages, booming exports reshape US-Mexico freight market

Mexico's export industry is expanding rapidly, driven by a surge in shipments and a shortage of qualified truck drivers, according to a report from logistics firm C.H. Robinson. June saw Mexican exports climb 34.4% year-over-year, with manufacturing exports surging 35.3%, primarily due to electrical and electronic equipment, food, and beverage shipments.

The United States remains the primary destination for Mexico's non-oil exports, absorbing 84% of them during the first half of 2026, with non-oil exports to the U.S. jumping 35.8% in June compared to 25% growth for other destinations.

Trucking companies operating between the two nations are capitalizing on the export boom, with northbound lanes from Coahuila and Nuevo León corridors experiencing high load-to-truck ratios and rate stability. However, demand for northbound capacity has softened in Laredo, Texas, down 6.7% week-over-week, and truckload rejection rates have decreased, signaling loosening capacity.

The trucking industry is grappling with a declining pool of drivers capable of crossing the border due to stricter B-1 visa and English-language requirements, as well as intensified scrutiny of shipping documentation and cargo declarations. As a result, carriers are offering competitive rates and prioritizing shippers who streamline operations and comply with regulations.

The automotive sector, once the backbone of U.S.-Mexico freight, is experiencing a slowdown, with light-vehicle production in Mexico virtually unchanged and exports growing by only 1.4% in the first half of 2026. Heavy-duty truck production and exports have also declined. Some manufacturers, such as Toyota, are adjusting production strategies in response to tariff uncertainty, shifting production from Mexico to Texas.

Meanwhile, technology-related freight is emerging as a significant growth driver, as Mexico has now become the top U.S. trading partner, accounting for nearly 17% of U.S. imports, with computing equipment surpassing automotive products in export volume. Additionally, Mexico's imports of intermediate goods for manufacturing have surged 30.9% year-over-year, representing roughly 80% of total imports. This trend suggests that export growth may persist throughout 2026.

However, Mexico's Port of Manzanillo, the country's busiest container gateway, is facing congestion due to road construction on the Colima-Manzanillo highway and port capacity constraints, leading to long truck queues and unpredictable drayage transit times. To mitigate these challenges, C.H. Robinson recommends that shippers incorporate additional buffer time into their supply chains or explore alternative gateways, such as Lázaro Cárdenas.