Colombia’s Own Economists Have Given Up on Cheaper Money This Year
Analysts now expect Colombian inflation to end 2026 at 6.6%, and the policy rate to stay at 12% through December. The post Colombia’s Own Economists Have Given Up on Cheaper Money This Year appeared first on The Rio Times .
Two separate surveys reveal that Colombia's inflation expectations have risen significantly, with the 12% policy rate remaining unchanged through December. Analysts polled by the Banco de la República now project total inflation at 6.6% by the end of 2026, up from 6.3% in April. Meanwhile, a separate survey indicates the 12% interest rate will stay at that level until at least December.
The Banco de la República's monthly survey of economic analysts produces the 6.6% figure, while another survey by a Bogotá think tank projects inflation at 6.53% for year-end. The difference between these two estimates is three-tenths of a percentage point, but that small gap marks a stark contrast between convergence toward the central bank's 3% target and a stagnant inflation plateau.
With inflation expected to exceed double the tolerance band, the situation is far from ideal for both consumers and businesses. The 12% policy rate impacts mortgage and consumer credit pricing, while the stronger peso benefits those receiving foreign income in Colombian pesos. However, the recent earthquake has further complicated the economic outlook, with estimates suggesting reconstruction could cost upwards of $12.9 billion and take up to six years to complete.
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