Canadian Dollar: Upside focus into 1.35–1.37 against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret have pointed out that the USD/CAD exchange rate is facing pressure due to a combination of broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and tentative progress on a potential US-Canada trade deal. The current spot rate is trading below the bank's fair value estimate around 1.3800, with short-term technicals being bearish. Resistance levels have decreased, indicating further losses may be expected in the 1.35–1.37 range.

The combination of broad dollar weakness and signs of progress on US/Canada trade is driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) higher. Intraday gains are modest, but the CAD's 0.3% rise is the second only to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) among major currencies. The tentative trade deal with the US is expected to provide some relief on certain steel and aluminium tariffs and reduce auto tariffs.

However, details have yet to be finalized, and the domestic reception to concessions made by the government to reach the deal remains to be seen.

Spot rates are currently trading below Scotiabank's fair value estimate, which continues to slide and sits at 1.3800. Bearish technicals, including the USD's sustained push under retracement support at 1.3817 and the bearish alignment of intraday, daily, and weekly DMI oscillators, maintain the focus on the downside and limit the USD's rebound potential significantly. The resistance level is expected to drop to 1.3825/50. The analysts warn of further USD losses, pushing the CAD into the 1.35/1.37 range.