Australian Dollar: Softer jobs data keeps RBA sidelined – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad observes the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) maintaining gains due to a weak July labor report from Australia. The economy unexpectedly shed 15,800 jobs in July, surpassing expectations of a 12,000 increase. This decrease in employment, combined with fewer hours worked, points to diminished labor demand.

Haddad believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its current stance due to these easing labor conditions, despite the potential benefits of higher carry and commodity exposure. Australia's July labor force report was softer than anticipated, with the economy losing 15,800 jobs (rather than the expected 12,000) - a stark contrast to the 80,200 jobs gained in June.

While full-time employment increased by 16,300 in July (up from a previous gain of 48,900), the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, up from the 4.4% expected, largely due to a fall in employment participation. Moreover, hours worked declined by 0.6% month-over-month. These labor market indicators suggest a weaker labor demand, rather than an increase in labor supply.

Consequently, Haddad argues that the RBA should remain on hold for an extended period. Nonetheless, Australia's favorable carry and strategic exposure to commodities, particularly in energy, AI, and defense, remain significant AUD tailwinds.