Area affected by wildfires in Europe could almost triple due to climate change
Increasingly hot, dry and windy conditions could substantially extend the area affected by wildfires across Europe, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research. In a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), the researchers calculate that roughly 39% more land would be burned per year by the…
A new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that Europe's wildfire damage could almost triple due to climate change. Under a low-emissions scenario, the area burned annually in Europe is projected to increase by 39% by the end of the century, while a high-emissions scenario could see a 192% increase.
Maik Billing, the lead author, notes that even with modest warming of 1.8°C, there could be widespread increases in burned area. However, with global temperatures rising by 3.6°C, fires could become much more prevalent, particularly in the Mediterranean and Western and Central Europe. Improved fire management techniques could reduce burned area by up to 92% in a 1.8°C future and 72% at roughly 3.6°C, but the researchers caution that these projections may be optimistic.
The study's authors emphasize the crucial role of emissions reductions and strengthening local fire management in mitigating the impacts of wildfires as conditions become more extreme.
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