Anleihen: Ausufernde Staatsschulden – Märkte stellen sich auf einen „aktivistischen“ US-Finanzminister ein

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has informed investors of an impending turning point in the markets. On Wednesday, his department initiated measures to curb the sharp rise in yields for long-term US government bonds. This move followed a previous intervention in the foreign exchange market in Japan just weeks ago. Bessent is now considered the "most activist" Treasury Secretary in decades, according to Krishna Guha, a bank expert at Evercore ISI.

The Treasury signals that it may surprise investors repeatedly and take active steps to avoid market tensions. This has short-term and long-term implications: initially, Bessent stopped the surge in yields for long-term US government bonds. The department announced on Wednesday that it would buy at least twice as many papers with maturities of ten to 30 years as initially planned.

The yield for the 30-year papers fell sharply shortly after. It had reached its highest level since 2007 at 5.34 percent on Tuesday. "It seems to have hit a sensitive nerve," market analysts from ING wrote in a recent analysis. On Thursday, the interest rate was 5.22 percent. Bessent's willingness to act so quickly is an important signal for investors.

For a long time, the so-called "Greenspan Put" was discussed in stock markets: investors were protected from significantly lower stock prices because they assumed the US central bank Fed, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, would lower interest rates. "Now we have the Bessent Put," ING says. With Bessent's announcement on Wednesday, major indices on Wall Street remained stable and barely changed.

On Thursday, a quiet trading start is expected. Bessent's actions are seen as a departure from the previous principle that the Treasury acts predictably in managing government bonds. Some observers view his maneuvers as an attempt to manipulate the yield curve - which measures interest rates across all maturities - without officially naming it.

Investors already saw an immediate effect after Bessent intervened with the yen in late July, alongside the Japanese government, to help the yen regain ground. However, the effect has largely faded away. The exchange rate has again hit the mark of 160 yen per dollar in recent days, a figure that is of great interest to markets. Experts therefore doubt the effectiveness of the actions the Treasury will implement in the short term.

Bessent's intervention in the bond market could only temporarily alleviate the situation, according to experts. "This technical measure does little to address the underlying realities," Bank BNP Paribas Chief Investment Strategist Stephan Kemper said. Dominik Müller, head of currency management at Metzler Bank, says "interventions only buy time."

The US government debt reached a record high of over $40 trillion late Wednesday. Concerns about high debt and rising interest expenses had previously worried investors, but the situation would always calm down soon. Macro strategist Brendan Fagan at Bloomberg Financial Services expects Bessent to act again in the future to reassure investors.

The Treasury Secretary has signaled that he feels uncomfortable with yields of 5.3 percent on long-term bonds. "Weaknesses are always tested again in practice," Fagan said. The US dollar fell, gold rose, and Bitcoin broke into the triple-digit mark. At the same time, longer-term consequences of an activist Treasury could show up elsewhere.

"If the Treasury intervenes in the bond market frequently, it could make the dollar less attractive," Krishna Guha said. Investors might then price in higher volatility and the risk of unexpected political measures. The dollar fell against other currencies on Wednesday, with the dollar index hitting its lowest level in three months.

The weakness of the dollar benefited other assets. Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant gains. Bitcoin also gained strength as a dollar alternative, hitting a new high of over $70,000 for the first time since June.