After Moderna stock surge of 177% on cancer drug breakthrough, here's what Wall Street thinks happens next

On the day following Moderna's impressive 177% stock surge following a cancer drug breakthrough, Wall Street analysts are pondering the next moves for the biotech giant. The company, in partnership with Merck (MRK), announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, successfully met its primary goal in a Phase 3 late-stage trial. The vaccine, designed to reduce melanoma recurrence in patients who had undergone surgical removal of their tumors, showed promising results.

Experts weighed in on the implications of the trial results. Jefferies analyst Tycho Peterson hailed the breakthrough as a significant proof point for mRNA technology beyond its COVID-19 applications. Bank of America's Alec Stranahan sees this as a watershed moment for Moderna, allowing the company to diversify away from infectious diseases and potentially alleviate lingering capital constraints.

Citigroup analyst Geoff Meacham expressed optimism but noted that the true impact of the oncology platform will depend on the full dataset, expected to be presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Madrid on October 23-27.

JPMorgan's Jessica Fye believes that the launch of intismeran in adjuvant melanoma is crucial for Moderna to return to profitability. However, she emphasizes that this success, while priced in to the stock, will require validation through read-across to other indications. Despite the optimism surrounding the partnership, analysts acknowledge that several questions remain, including the potential for label expansions, market uptake, and the scale of Moderna's oncology franchise.